2010—2019年北京市房山区5岁及以下儿童手足口病流行期和超额发病数的估计

Epidemic period and the excess case numbers of hand-foot-mouth disease among children aged 5 years and below in Fangshan District of Beijing from 2010 to 2019

目的通过分析北京市房山区2010—2019年5岁及以下儿童的手足口病发病情况,判定流行期并估计超额发病数,为制定防治策略提供依据。方法利用北京市房山区2010—2019年5岁及以下儿童的每月手足口病发病数,拟合调整Serfling回归模型,判定流行期和估计超额发病数。结果拟合的调整Serfling回归模型决定系数为0.711。经调整Serfling回归模型判定,2010—2019年北京市房山区5岁及以下儿童的手足口病流行期共25个月。2010—2015年、2018年出现夏季流行期,主要集中在5-7月。2010—2011年、2014年、2017年和2019年出现秋冬季流行期,主要集中在10-11月。累计超额发病4 402人,占总发病数的29.16%(4 402/15 094),除2017年和2019年外主要集中在夏季流行期。结论用调整Serfling回归模型能较好地拟合北京市房山区5岁及以下儿童的手足口病发病数。除夏季流行期外,应加强秋冬季手足口病的重视程度。

Objective To estimate epidemic period and the excess case numbers of hand-foot andmouth disease(HFMD) among children aged 5 years and below in Fangshan District of Beijing from 2010 to 2019. Methods Using the monthly HFMD cases among children aged 5 years and below reported in Fangshan District of Beijing from 2010 to 2019, adjusted Serfling regression model was fitted to determine the epidemic period and estimate the corresponding excess numbers.Results The coefficient of determination in adjusted Serfling regression model was 0.711. HFMD has been prevalent for 25 months among children aged 5 years and below from 2010 to 2019. The epidemic period of summer was mainly concentrated in May to July during 2010 to 2015 and 2018.The epidemic period of autumn-and-winter was in October to November during 2010 to 2011,2014, 2017 and 2019. The number of the excess case numbers were 4 402, accounting for 29.16%. The excess case numbers were mainly concentrated in the summer epidemic period except in 2017 and 2019. Conclusions The adjusted Serfling regression model can fit the HFMD incidence among children aged 5 years and below in Fangshan District of Beijing. In addition to the summer epidemic period, the awareness of HFMD prevention and control in autumn and winter should be strengthened.