互联网发展、劳动力逆向转移与产业结构早熟

Internet Development,Labor Reverse Transfer and Industrial Structure Precocity

产业结构早熟属于"逆库兹涅茨"式产业结构演化的范畴,挤压了制造业空间,会诱发产业结构回退,造成国家经济增长乏力,容易陷入"中等收入陷阱"。本文借助Duarte和Restuccia(2010)三部门模型,探讨了互联网发展与产业结构早熟的关系。研究结论如下:(1)在全国层面与东中部地区,互联网发展与产业结构早熟存在"U"型关系。(2)由于在分区域层面互联网发展影响产业结构早熟的拐点值不一样,不同省份未来经济发展策略的着力点存在较大差异。(3)劳动力逆向转移作为中介变量,加剧了全国和东中部地区的产业结构早熟。基于以上研究结论,未来需要通过兼顾互联网的就业效应和劳动生产率提升效应,准确研判区域差异,充分发挥互联网在制造业与服务业融合中的积极作用,解决产业结构早熟问题。

Industrial structure precocity belongs to the category of"reverse Kuznets"type of industrial structure evolution.It squeezes the manufacturing space and induces the retreat of industrial structure,causing the country’s economic growth to be weak,and it is easy to fall into the"middle income trap".Based on the Duarte and Restuccia(2010)model,we explore the relationship between internet development and industrial structure precocity.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)At the national level,there is a U-shaped relationship between Internet development and industrial structure precocity.At the sub-regional level,the relationship between Internet development and industrial structure precocity also shows a U-shaped relationship in the Eastern and central regions,which is consistent with the regression results at the national level,while the relationship between Internet development and industrial structure precocity shows an inverted U-shaped relationship in the western region,but is not statistically significant.(2)Due to the different inflection points of industrial structure precocity influenced by Internet development at the sub-regional level,different provinces may have great differences in the focus points of future economic development strategies.(3)As an intermediary variable,labor reverse transfer intensifies industrial structure precocity at national and eastern and central regions.Based on the above research conclusions,it may be necessary to take into account the employment effect and labor productivity improvement effect of the Internet in the future,accurately analyze regional differences,give full play to the positive role of the Internet in the integration of manufacturing and service industry,and overcome industrial structure precocity problem.