基于可靠性理论的专利失效模型研究

Research on Patent Failure Model Based on Reliability Theory

授权专利失效的比例和速率可以反映出某个实体的专利质量和对专利运营维护的重视程度,研究专利失效的规律对推进我国专利质量工程建设和知识产权强国战略实施,具有重要意义。关于失效专利的现有研究缺少较好的理论模型,因此有必要对专利失效的模型进行研究。文章在总结现有研究中失效专利统计分析指标与方法不足的基础上,设计跟随式专利失效率计算方法,基于可靠性理论构建服从指数分布的专利失效模型,同时引入专利失效系数和半衰期测度指标来反映专利失效速率。通过某机构的实证研究显示,所构建的专利失效模型方法和测度指标能够有效地揭示该机构授权专利失效率动态变化的过程,可以反映不同批次授权专利失效的速率差异,可以反映同一批授权专利后续不同阶段的失效状况,还可以作为机构专利质量评价和政策效用评估的有力补充。

The proportion and rate of invalidation of authorized patents can reflect the quality of an agency’s patents and the importance it attaches to patent operation and maintenance. Studying the regular pattern of patent invalidation is of great significance to promoting the construction of patent quality projects in our country and the implementation of the strategy of Intellectual Property Power Strategy. The current research on invalid patents lacks a better theoretical model, so a model of patent invalidation needs to be studied. Based on summarizing the related research of invalid patents, the article designs a follow-up patent failure rate calculation method, builds a patent failure model that follows an exponential distribution based on reliability theory, and introduce patent invalidation coefficient and half-life measurement index to reflect patent invalidation rate. Empirical research shows that the follow-up patent failure rate calculation method and patent failure coefficient constructed in this paper can effectively reveal the dynamic change process of the agency’s authorized patent failure rate, can reflect the difference in the rate of invalidation of different batches of authorized patents,and can reflect the failure status of the same batch of authorized patents at different subsequent stages. It also can be a powerful supplement to the agency’s patent quality evaluation and policy utility evaluation.