贸易隐含碳责任问题分析与驱动因素研究

Analysis on the Responsibility of Embodied Carbon in Trade and Its Driving Force

本文采用基于碳排放强度(NCI)的消费侧碳排放核算方法,利用国际贸易中心(International Trade Centre, ITC)数据库、全球大气研究排放数据库(Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, EDGAR)以及世界银行数据库,以欧盟、美国等13个国家和地区为研究样本,对中国与全球主要经济体贸易隐含碳进行核算,厘清中国承担的国外消费侧碳排放责任,并对中国出口隐含碳的驱动因素进行了全面分析。研究发现:一是,多数发达经济体的消费侧排放高于生产侧排放,多数发展中经济体则相反,发展中国家承担了发达国家15%~20%的消费侧碳排放责任;二是,国家和地区碳排放与贸易隐含碳排放密切相关,相关系数为0.96;三是,中国承担了大量国外消费侧需求的碳排放责任,承担最多的是美国、欧盟、东盟和日本的消费侧碳排放责任,2019年分别占到中国生产侧碳排放的3.8%、3.5%、2.3%和1.2%;四是,技术效应是中国贸易隐含碳排放主要驱动因素,各行业具体驱动因素不同。基于以上分析,建议:一是,中国在推动实现"碳达峰""碳中和"目标时应考虑贸易因素;二是,针对具体行业采取差异化的贸易减排措施;三是,在国际谈判中充分考虑中国"碳达峰""碳中和"需求;四是,进一步加强基于消费侧碳排放的研究和测算。

This paper adopts a consumer-side carbon emission accounting method based on carbon emission intensity(NCI) to calculate the embodied carbon in China’s trade with main economies in the world and to clarify the responsibility of carbon emission from consumers’ side, by using data from the International Trade Centre(ITC) database, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research(EDGAR) and the World Bank database. The main economies the study selected as the samples include 13 countries and regions, such as the European Union and the United States, which have a large amount of imports and exports with China. The study found that: Firstly, the consumption-side emissions of most developed economies are higher than the production-side emissions, while most developing economies are the opposite. Developing countries bear 15%-20% of the consumption-side carbon emissions of developed countries. Secondly, national and regional carbon emissions are closely related to the embodied carbon emissions in trade, with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. Thirdly, China has undertaken a large number of carbon emissions responsibilities for foreign consumer-side demand, of which the United States, the European Union, ASEAN, and Japan have assumed to be taken the most. In 2019, they accounted for 3.8%, 3.5%, 2.3% and 1.2% of China’s production-side carbon emissions respectively. Fourthly, technological effect is the main driving factor of China’s trade embodied carbon emissions, and the specific driving factors of each industry are different. Based on the analysis above, it is recommended that: Firstly, China should consider trade factors when promoting the realization of the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” goals. Secondly, China Should take different trade measures on CO;emission reduction for specific industries;Thirdly, China should fully consider its “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” needs in international negotiations. Fourthly, China should further strengthen the research on calculations of carbon emissions from consumer-side.