基于多源数据多决策模型定量分析民俗文化旅游发展影响因素及对策——以陕西省咸阳市袁家村为例

Quantitative Analysis of Influence Factors and Countermeasures of Folk Culture Tourism Development by Multi-data and Multi-Decision Models——A Case Study of Yuanjiacun Village in Xianyang City, Shaanxi Province

民俗文化旅游是我国乡村振兴战略和黄河流域高质量发展的重要组成部分。当前,黄河流域高质量发展与乡村振兴战略全面实施,民俗文化旅游作为助推乡村振兴的重要生态手段,与其相关的研究亟待开展。陕西省袁家村位于黄河流域关中平原,是国内影响较大的民俗文化旅游典型示范村。文章采用SWOT分析与QSPM模型结合的方法,从优势(S)、劣势(W)、机会(O)、威胁(T)四个维度对陕西袁家村民俗文化旅游产业的影响进行定量化研究,并从不同影响因素的重要性及其活动强度两个方面对各个因子进行量化,同时对提出的发展战略进行量化评估。研究结果表明,袁家村民俗旅游发展外部因素影响得分为3.50,内部因素影响得分为3.45,外部因素影响大于内部因素影响;优势得分为2.40,劣势得分为1.05,机会得分为1.95,威胁得分为1.55,表明优势影响大于劣势,机会影响大于威胁。在六项发展战略中,"把握民俗文化旅游核心价值,推动特色品牌发展"得分最高,为5.45。基于此,文章提出袁家村应注重地方特色品牌的打造与推广,以解决经济发展过程中的同质化竞争、目标人群定位不明确以及环境问题,并从利用新媒体、创新营销模式、借智引才、深挖文创等方面进行改进。

Folk culture tourism is an important part of national rural revitalization strategies and the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. With the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and the comprehensive implementation of rural revitalization strategy, related researches about folk culture tourism needs to be carried out urgently since the folk culture tourism is one of the means to promote rural revitalization.Yuanjiacun village located in Guanzhong plain of Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province is a typical model village of folk culture tourism in China. In this study, SWOT analysis method was used to analyse folk culture tourism of Yuanjiacun village from four dimensions: Strengths(S), Weaknesses(W), Opportunities(O)and Threats(T). Combining the SWOT analysis and QSPM model, this paper quantified each factor based on the importance of different influence factors and their activity intensity, and then quantitatively evaluated the proposed development strategy. According to the results, the influence of external factors scored 3.50 in the development of folk culture tourism in Yuanjiacun, while internal factors scored 3.45, indicating that the influence of external factors was greater than that of internal factors. The scores of advantage, disadvantage, opportunity and threat were 2.40, 1.05, 1.95, 1.55 respectively, indicating that the advantages outweighed the disadvantages and the opportunities outweighed the threats. In this study, six strategies were proposed, of which the highest-scoring strategy was “to grasp the core values of folk culture tourism and promote the development of distinctive brands”,with a total score of 5.45. Therefore, the paper indicated that the local characteristic brands should be built and promoted, and the problems such as the homogenized competition in economic development, unclear target group positioning and environmental pollution needed to be solved. Finally, the suggestions including positively using new media, innovating marketing mode, bringing in talents and excavating cultural innovation were proposed.