政府债务、国家主权信用与经济增长——来自全球95个国家的国别经验

Government Debt, National Sovereign Credit and Economic Growth--From the Multinational Experience of 95 Countries

国家主权信用作为评估中央政府偿债意愿和能力的有效因素,其对政府债务可持续性和经济增长的影响具有重要意义。基于政府债务内生化的经济增长理论,利用1996—2018年的跨国经验数据从主权信用视角评估了政府债务扩张的经济增长效应。研究发现:整体上,不同规模的政府债务扩张均不利于经济增长,但债务和主权信用条件组合下的结论具有异质性;以2008年全球金融危机为样本划分,发现稳定的政治和金融环境对维系高水平政府债务产生积极效应;中低债务水平上的货币政策利率工具对经济增长有积极的调控作用,但在高债务水平上未能发挥其应有政策效果。对于当前主要国家政府债务高企问题,良好的政治和金融环境是国家主权信用发挥内生作用的重要基石。

National sovereign credit, as an effective factor to evaluate the central government’s debt repayment willingness and ability, is of great significance to the sustainability of government debt and its impact on economic growth. This paper uses empirical data of 95 countries from 1996 to 2018 to assess the economic growth effect of government debt expansion from perspective of sovereign credit, results show that: Overall, different levels of government debt expansion are not conducive to economic growth, but the conclusions under different combinations of debt and sovereign credit conditions are heterogeneous;Using the 2008 global financial crisis as sample division, it is found that stable political and financial environment has a positive effect on maintaining high-level government debt;Interest rate tools of monetary policy at low and medium debt levels have positive regulatory effect on economic growth, but they failed to play to due policy effect at high debt level. The conclusion shows that for current high government debt with major countries, good political and financial environment are important cornerstone for explaining endogenous role of national sovereign credit.