中美产业双循环格局变化趋势比较——隐含增加值视角

Comparison of the Changing Trend of Industrial Double-cycle Pattern between China and America--Implicit Added Value Perspective

本文基于列昂惕夫逆矩阵的隐含问题计算方法创新,运用世界投入产出数据,分析中美产业外部依赖度与隐含价值贡献度,探讨产业双循环问题。在考察期2000—2023年,中国总体及分行业外部依赖度,以及隐含外部价值贡献度等皆呈现从不断上升到逐渐下降的类似抛物线的明显特征,而美国及其他国家或地区对中国的依赖度则呈现不断上升的趋势。中美产出品隐含相互价值贡献度差异不断缩小,部分行业甚至出现逆转,美国产出品隐含中国价值贡献度持续上升。美国享有全球最终需求品价值远大于其创造的增加值,加入WTO后中国外部依赖度不断上升,通过不断学习与创新,加上国内市场的规模经济与产品差异化,中国产业外部依赖度不断回落,而对外部世界影响则持续增强。

Based on the innovation of implicit problem calculation method of Leontief Inverse Matrix, this paper uses the world input-output data to analyze the industrial external dependence degree and the implicit value contribution degree of Chinese and American Industries, and discusses the industrial double-cycle problem. From 2000 to 2023, China’s overall and subindustry external dependence, as well as the implied external value contribution, all show obvious characteristics similar to a parabola from rising to falling, while the dependence of America and other countries on China is on the rise. The difference in the implied mutual value contribution of Chinese and American products has been narrowing, some industries have even reversed,and the implied Chinese value contribution of American products has continued to rise. The America enjoys far more value in global final demand than the value added it creates. After China’s entry into the WTO, China’s external dependence has continued to rise. Through continuous learning and innovation, coupled with economies of scale and product differentiation in the domestic market, the external dependence of China’s industries has continued to decline, while the impact on the outside world has continued to increase.