2021年我国经济景气形势监测、分析和预测

The Monitoring,Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Situations of China in 2021

我国经济增长在遭遇前所未有的疫情冲击后进入为期一年的超常快速扩张期,并于2021年2月形成扩张高峰,此后转入经济周期收缩阶段。2020年11月至2021年7月经济运行已恢复至“正常”景气区间,但需求端的恢复弱于供给端。2021年3季度的综合警情指数明显下滑,发出“偏冷”预警信号,且4季度可能继续下行,但物价总体保持稳定。预计全年GDP增长8.1%左右(两年平均增长5.2%左右),全年CPI上涨0.9%左右。建议宏观调控应做好跨周期设计,注意处理好稳增长、防风险和节能环保的关系,提高疫情应对的精准性,适度加大稳增长力度,努力保持经济在合理区间的平稳运行。

After the unprecedented outbreak of the pandemic,China’s economic growth rapidly expanded for one year,and reached the peak of expansion in February 2021,after which it turned into a period of cyclical contraction.From November 2020 to July 2021,the economic conditions has recovered to the"normal",but the recovery of the demand is weaker than the supply.In 2020 Q3,the warning index declined significantly and signaled"cold",which means it may continue declining in Q4,whereas the price would keep stable totally It is predicted that the annual GDP growth rate will be8.1%(the two-year average growth rate is around 5.2%),while the annual inflation rate will be about 0.9%.It is suggested that macroeconomic policies should be well designed for cross–cycle,striking a balance between growth stabilizing,risks preventing and energy conserving and environment protecting;meanwhile the precision of response to the pandemic should be improved,and economic performance should be maintained steadily within an appropriate range.