“一带一路”倡议与沿线国家全球价值链地位攀升研究

Research on the Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on Upgrading the Global Value Chain Status of Countries along the Route

采用政策评估的有效方法——双重差分法,评析“一带一路”倡议对全球价值链分工地位的提升效应。实证结果发现,“一带一路”倡议的提出显著提升了沿线各国的全球价值链地位;进一步通过异质性分析发现,在地理区位上,“一带一路”倡议对提升“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家的全球价值链地位更为有效。从沿线国家发展水平来看,“一带一路”倡议显著提升了发展中国家的全球价值链分工地位,而对发达国家则不存在显著的促进效应;从国际投资意向来看,实现双边投资协定签署及制度合作将有助于沿线各国全球价值链地位的升级。实证拓展研究使文末的政策建议更具针对性。

This article uses difference-in-difference,an effective method for policy evaluation,to evaluate the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on raising the global value chain position.The empirical results show that the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly improved the position of the countries along the route in the global value chain.The further analysis of heterogeneity finds that,geographically,the Belt and Road Initiative is more effective in enhancing the global value chain status of countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.Judging from the development level of the countries along the Belt and Road,the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly improved the division status of developing countries in the global value chain,while there is no significant promotion effect on developed countries.Judging from the international investment intentions,signing bilateral investment agreements and conducting institutional cooperation will help countries along the Belt and Road to upgrade their position in the global value chain.The empirical expansion research makes the policy recommendations at the end of the article more targeted.