中国的OFDI与“一带一路”沿线国家绿色发展

China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)Promoting the Green Development of Countries along the Belt and Road

通过2004—2017年的国际面板数据,运用带非期望产出的SBM模型测算GML指数,用其衡量“一带一路”沿线31个国家的绿色发展水平,考察中国OFDI与“一带一路”沿线国家绿色发展之间的关系,检验“一带一路”国家是否成为中国的OFDI的“污染避难所”。结果表明:中国的OFDI显著促进了“一带一路”沿线国家绿色发展水平,通过工具变量处理潜在的内生性问题后结果仍然成立,验证了“一带一路”沿线国家并非是中国的OFDI“污染避难所”;分样本估计结果发现,中国的OFDI对亚洲国家的绿色全要素增长效应大于欧洲国家;通过引入基础设施水平和能源利用水平两个变量,发现基础设施水平和能源利用水平在中国的OFDI改善“一带一路”沿线国家绿色发展水平中起着显著的中介效应,说明中国的OFDI可以改善“一带一路”沿线国家的基础水平和能源利用水平,促进其绿色发展。

Based on the international panel data from 2004 to 2017,this paper uses SBM model with unexpected output to calculate the global Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index,measures the level of green development of 31 countries along the Belt and Road,examines the relationship between China's OFDI and the green development of these countries,and verifies whether these countries have become a“pollution haven”of China's OFDI.The results show that China's OFDI has significantly promoted the green development level of the countries along the route,and the results are still valid after processing potential endogenous problems through instrumental variables,verifying that the countries along route are not China's OFDI's“pollution haven”.According to the sub-sample estimation results,China's OFDI has a greater green total factor growth effect in Asian countries than in European countries.By introducing two variables of infrastructure level and energy utilization level,it is found that the levels of infrastructure and energy utilization in China OFDI play a significant intermediary effect in improving the green development level of the countries along the Belt and Road,which indicates that China's OFDI can improve the basic level and energy utilization level of the countries along the Belt and Road and promote the green development in these countries.