因果推断、科学证据与教育研究——兼论2021年诺贝尔经济学奖得主的教育研究

Causal Inference,Scientific Evidence,and Educational Research:Discussion on the Educational Research of Nobel Laureates in Economics in 2021

近三十年来,因果推断方法取得长足发展,已成为社会科学研究的主流量化方法,在教育量化研究中亦有着非常广泛的应用。2021年,诺贝尔经济学奖授予戴维·卡德、乔舒亚·D·安格里斯特与吉多·W·因本斯,以表彰他们在推动因果推断方法发展与应用方面所做出的贡献。本文以此为切入点,先讨论教育研究兼具人文关怀和科学理性的双重属性,阐明获取有效的因果证据对推动教育科学研究发展的重要意义,再详细介绍诺奖得主在教育收益率、小班化教学效果、学校投入对学生认知能力发展的影响等方面所取得的重要研究成果,最后对当前我国教育因果推断研究所存在的问题进行讨论并提出建议。

In recent thirty years,causal inference method has become the mainstream method of quantitative research in social science and has been widely used in the field of education.In 2021,the Nobel Economics Prize was awarded to David Card,Joshua D.Angrist,and Guido W.Imbens for their contributions to promoting the development of causal inference methods.Taking the causal inference research of the three economists in the field of education as the starting point,firstly,this paper discusses the dual attributes of educational research,which have both humanistic care and scientific rationality,and expounds the significance of obtaining effective causal evidence in promoting the development of educational science research.Secondly,this paper introduces in detail the important research findings made by the three Nobel Prize winners in the aspects of Return to Education,the effect of Small Class Teaching,and the effect of school investment on the development of students’cognitive ability.Lastly,this paper discusses the existing problems and future improvement direction of educational causal studies in China.