基于CAPM模型的泸州老窖股份有限公司风险分析

Risk Analysis of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co.,Ltd Based on CAPM Model

随着经济体制改革的进一步深化以及资本市场制度的逐步完善,我国上市公司的规模进一步扩大,随之而来的风险也逐渐增多,因此,计算并对该风险进行分析已成为重中之重。选用CAPM模型进行实证研究,以国债利率为无风险利率,选取泸州老窖股份有限公司、沪深300指数5年内开盘与收盘价,进行风险系数β的计算,并根据β区间范围进行风险程度判断,从而给出投资建议和对策。

With the further deepening of the economic system reform and the gradual improvement of the capital market system,the scale of China’s listed companies has been further expanded,followed by a gradual increase in the risk,therefore,calculation and analysis of the risk has become a top priority.In this paper,the CAPM model is used for empirical research.Taking the interest rate of national debt as the riskfree interest rate,the opening and closing prices of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co.,Ltd and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes within five years are selected to calculate the risk coefficient β,and the risk degree is determined according to the β range,and then the investment suggestions and countermeasures are given.