人口老龄化对家庭债务风险的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Population Aging on Household Debt Risk

基于2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,本文从债务压力、偿债能力和宏观经济三个方面构造家庭层面债务风险指数,实证研究了人口老龄化对家庭债务风险的影响及作用机制。研究发现,人口老龄化显著抑制了家庭债务风险,且这一基本结论在更换老龄人口划分标准和采用“每千人卫生人员数”IV估计后依然稳健。机制分析表明,人口老龄化可以通过家庭财富积累和减少负债两种渠道对家庭债务风险产生影响。进一步分析发现,人口老龄化对家庭债务风险的影响具有典型的群体性特征,其对城市、低学历、高收入和中年群体影响更为深远。

Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2017,this paper constructs the household debt risk index from three aspects of debt pressure,debt paying ability and macro economy,and empirically studies the impact of population aging on household debt risk and its mechanism.The study found that population aging significantly curbed household debt risk,and this basic conclusion remained robust after changing the criteria for the classification of the elderly population and adopting the IV estimate of health workers per thousand.The mechanism analysis shows that population aging can influence household debt risk through household wealth accumulation and debt reduction.Further analysis shows that the impact of population aging on household debt risk has a typical group characteristic,and has a more profound impact on urban,low education,high income and middle-aged groups.