中国风力发电绩效的区域差异及空间计量分析

Regional Differences and Spatial Econometric Analysis of Wind Power Generation Performance in China

近年来,中国的弃风现象影响了风电资源的利用率,不利于中国能源结构转型。为了有效提高风电绩效,加快能源革命的进度,对中国各省域进行差异化的区域风电发展研究。借助DEA-TOPSIS模型测算风电绩效,将结果和超效率DEA模型的测算结果对比分析,验证了提出模型更适用于风电绩效评估,并引入空间面板模型分析风电绩效的影响因素,制定了能促进风电发展的差异化战略。研究结果表明,各省域风力发电纯技术效率整体低于规模效率,地理近邻性对中国风电发展有正向影响,目前影响中国风电绩效的主要因素是区域经济发展水平和弃风现象。为各省域风力发电运营和管理的优化提供决策参考。

In recent years,wind curtailment in China has seriously affected the utilization rate of wind power resources and hindered the process of China’s energy structure transformation.To effectively improve wind power performance and speed up the progress of energy revolution,this paper conducts differentiated research on regional wind power development of various provinces in China.The DEA-TOPSIS model is used to measure wind power performance,and the result is compared with that of the super efficiency DEA model.It is verified that the proposed model is more suitable for wind power performance evaluation.The space panel model is introduced to analyze the influencing factors in wind power performance,and the differentiation strategy is formulated to promote the development of wind power.The results show that the pure technical efficiency of wind power in various provinces is lower than the scale efficiency as a whole,and the geographical proximity has a positive impact on China’s wind power development.At present,the main factors affecting the performance of wind power in China are the level of regional economic development and wind curtailment.The research provides a decision-making reference for the optimization of wind power operation and management in various provinces.