水上通航环境危险度云模型及其应用

Risk Cloud Model and An Application for Evaluation of Nautical Navigational Environment

为充分展示和运用不确定性信息以得到综合评价结果,将云模型理论引入到水上通航环境危险度评价。本文简述了云模型的基本理论,基于其构建了通航环境危险度云模型并给出了具体实现方案:基于黄金分割法确定评价参考刻度:包含5个基准危险度云模型;将以短语表示的通航环境危险度评价转化为以云模型表示;采用加权集结算子对多个云模型进行综合,得到最终通航环境危险度云模型;采用一维正态云的正向发生器算法产生危险度云模型的云滴并标绘,以对危险度特征进行平面展现。作为应用示例,将上述方案应用于琼州海峡通航环境危险度评价。对考虑的9个评价对象,得到的综合评价云模型展示了带有“不确定性信息”的危险度特征。研究表明,构建的通航环境危险度云模型有效综合了多渠道信息,且能够体现评价过程中的不确定性,是通航环境综合危险度评价的一种更好方式。

In order to achieve a comprehensive evaluation thorough expression and usage of uncertainty,the basic theory of cloud model was introduced into risk evaluation of nautical navigational environment. This paper structured up a risk cloud model and proposed an approach scheme. Reference scale including five benchmark risk cloud models was designed and established by using the golden section method. Initial evaluation results expressed by experts’ linguistic phrases were transformed into risk cloud models. Weighted sum operation was implemented to achieve the final risk cloud model for comprehensive evaluation. The cloud droplets for vivid demonstrations were produced by using forward cloud generator algorithm of the one-dimensional normal cloud. The droplets then were plotted in plane coordinate system to show risk characteristics. As an application case, the proposed approach scheme was used to evaluate risk degree of navigational environ-ment of Qiongzhou Strait. In terms of concerned nine evaluation objects, the risk cloud models were able to comprehensively show risk characteristics with reflection of "uncertainty". The study showed that the proposed risk cloud model and the technical implementations took advantages of multi-channel information, were able to reflect uncertainty during the evaluation process, and made a better mode for risk evaluation of nautical navigational environment.