“双循环”新格局下高等教育资源需求与配置路径

The Demand of Higher Education Resources and the Path Allocation Design against the Background of a New“Dual-circulation”Pattern

在贸易逆全球化发展和新冠疫情蔓延的双重作用下,世界经济增长格局发生显著变化。为了在新一轮世界经济增长格局中掌握发展的主动权,2020年5月,中国政府首次正式提出“充分发挥我国内需潜力,构建国内国际双循环新发展格局”的战略方针。高等教育作为国民教育的终端,在普及化发展的进程中被“双循环”新发展格局赋予了新的使命。因此,高等教育资源配置在赋能内循环发展的同时,成为扩大内需的重要途径。基于Leslie模型,通过对2020年以后我国高等教育普及化进程中的师资和校舍等教育资源需求进行靶向性预测与配置路径探讨,以期从供需两侧驱动有效市场与有为政府统筹增加高等教育投入,在促进国民人力资本积累的过程中,推动我国经济增长由依赖“人口红利”向依靠“人才红利”转型,进而深度推进“双循环”新格局的发展。

Due to the dual effects of anti-globalization of trade and the spread of COVID-19,the world economic growth pattern has undergone great changes.In order to grasp the initiative of development in the new round of the world economic growth pattern,the Chinese government formally proposed for the first time the strategic principle of“giving full play to the potential of China’s domestic demand and building a new pattern of domestic and international dual-circulation development”in May 2020.As the last stage of the national education,higher education has been endowed with a new mission by the new development pattern of“dual circulation”in the process of its popularization.Therefore,the allocation of higher education resources has become an important way to expand the domestic demand while enabling the development of internal circulation.Based on the Leslie model,this paper makes a targeted prediction and offers a configuration path of the demand for educational resources such as teachers and schools in the process of popularizing higher education in China after 2020 in order to drive the effective market on the both sides of supply and demand and increase the investment in higher education as a whole by the government.In the process of promoting the accumulation of the national human capital,it expects to promote the transformation of China’s economic growth from relying on“demographic dividend”to“talent dividend”,and quicken the development of the new pattern of“dual circulation”.