基于改进LOPA分析的油气站场风险评价研究

Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Station Based on Improved LOPA Analysis

随着油气管道的不断铺设,保护层(LOPA)分析被广泛应用于油气站场工艺流程风险评价中。针对传统LOPA分析的不足,对初始事件发生频率进行修正,其中设备失效概率采用API581计算,控制系统失效概率采用SIL等级验证方法计算,人因失效概率采用CREAM+HCR模型相结合的方法计算;对多初始事件引发同一后果的发生频率进行修正,引入后果减缓系数计算非独立保护层的失效概率,并进行了实例验证。结果表明,改进后的风险分析后果发生频率较改进前有所降低,避免了传统方法过于保守的风险评价结果,节约了资金投入;通过改进LOPA分析方法克服了在初始事件发生频率和保护层识别方面的局限性,有利于扩展LOPA分析的应用范围。

With the continuous increase of oil and gas pipeline mileage,layers of protection analysis(LOPA)is widely used in the risk assessment of oil and gas station process flow.Aiming at the defects of traditional LOPA analysis,the initial event frequency is modified.The equipment failure probability is calculated by API581,the control system failure probability is calculated by the SIL level verification method,and the human failure probability is calculated by the CREAM+HCR model.The frequency of the same consequence caused by multiple initial events is modified,and the failure probability of the nonindependent protective layer is calculated by introducing the consequence mitigation coefficient,which is verified by an example.Results show that the frequency of consequence after improvement is lower than before improvement,which avoids too conservative evaluation results of the traditional method and saves capital investment.Through improvement,the limitations of LOPA analysis in the frequency of initial events and the identification of protective layers are overcome,which is beneficial to expand the application range of LOPA analysis.