基于SEIR的微信公众号信息传播建模与分析

Modeling and Analysis of WeChat Official Account Information Dissemination Based on SEIR

移动互联网时代,社交关系链的线上化已成为不可逆转的趋势。微信公众号的出现,在提升信息获取便捷性的同时也增加了系统信息治理的难度。因此,公众号信息在微信社交网络上的传播过程与遏制谣言在社交网络上的扩散的研究成为了微信运营者及社会监管部门关注的重点。本研究基于SEIR传染病模型,利用北京速途公司提供的真实运营数据,计算模拟S态、E态、I态和R态4类用户的相互转化概率,并还原公众号信息在微信上传播的全链路过程。此外,本研究还量化分析了公众号粉丝数量、粉丝影响力、潜在用户转化成携带用户的感染概率P_(1)、携带用户转化成传播用户的传播概率P_(2)对信息传播过程的影响,验证了意见领袖强行免疫策略在抑制信息传播方面的有效性。

In the era of mobile Internet,it has become an irreversible trend that the social relationship chain goes online.The appearance of WeChat official account not only improves the convenience of information acquisition,but also increases the difficulty of system information governance.The research about the dissemination process of official account information on the WeChat social network and curbing the spread of rumors on social networks become the focus of WeChat operators and social regulator authorities.Based on the SEIR infectious disease model,this paper uses the real operating data provided by Beijing Sootoo Company to calculate and simulate the mutual conversion probability of the S-state,E-state,I-state and R-state users,and restores the whole link process of official account information dissemination on WeChat social network.In addition,this paper also quantitatively analyzes the influence of the number of official account fans,the influence of fans,the infection probability P_(1) of susceptible users into exposed users,and the dissemination probability P_(2) of exposed users into infected users on the process of information dissemination,which proves the effectiveness of the key opinion leader’s forced immunization strategy in suppressing information dissemination.