基底节区高血压脑出血患者预后模型的构建

Construction of prognosis model of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage in basal ganglia

目的:探讨基底节区高血压脑出血患者预后结局的影响因素,并构建预测模型。方法:选择2020年1月~2021年9月山东省某三级甲等医院基底节区高血压脑出血患者262例,按照格拉斯哥预后分级分为预后良好组(78例)和预后不良组(184例),并对两组资料进行单因素分析和Logistic回归分析,探讨基底节区高血压脑出血患者预后结局的影响因素并建立预测模型,采用ROC曲线下面积及Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评估模型预测效果。结果:年龄、合并糖尿病、脑出血量、D-二聚体水平是基底节区高血压脑出血患者预后不良的影响因素,预测模型验证结果显示,ROC曲线下面积为0.908(P<0.001),Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果显示P值为0.717。结论:年龄≥60岁、合并糖尿病、脑出血量、D-二聚体水平为基底节区高血压脑出血患者预后不良的预测指标。

Objective:To explore the influencing factors of prognosis and outcome in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage in basal ganglia,and to construct a prediction model.Methods:From January 2020 to September 2021,262 patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage in the basal ganglia of a class III class a hospital in Shandong Province were selected and divided into good prognosis group(78 cases)and poor prognosis group(184 cases)according to the prognosis grade of Glasgow.The data of the two groups were analyzed by univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis.To explore the influencing factors of prognosis and outcome of patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage in basal ganglia,and establish a prediction model.The area under ROC curve and Hosmer-lemeshow test were used to evaluate the prediction effect of the model.Results:Age,diabetes mellitus,cerebral hemorrhage and D-dimer levels were the influencing factors of poor prognosis of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage in basal ganglia.Prediction model validation showed that the area under the ROC curve was 0.908(P<0.001),and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the P value was 0.717.Conclusion:Age≥60 years,diabetes mellitus,cerebral hemorrhage volume and D-dimer level were the predictors of poor prognosis in hypertensive patients with basal ganglia hemorrhage.