江苏省工业碳排放演变特征及影响因素识别研究

Research on Identification of Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Carbon Emission in Jiangsu Province

为了促进江苏省工业低碳经济发展,以2000-2019年的相关数据为基础,通过IPCC方法对江苏省工业碳排放进行核算,利用kaya模型与LMDI模型对江苏工业碳排放的影响因素进行识别研究.研究表明:2019年的碳排放总量为46311.19万t,是2000年的12539.6万t的3.69倍,年均增长速度为7.12%.演变趋势前期快速增长,后期逐渐趋向稳定;碳排放强度由2000年的1.46t/万元下降至2019年的0.46t/万元,呈逐年下降趋势;行业规模、工业发展水平和能源消费结构是江苏省工业碳排放的驱动因素,能源强度是江苏省工业碳排放的抑制因素.建议江苏省采取调整能源消费结构、加大企业创新力度、大力发展清洁能源和加快产业升级转型等措施促进江苏省工业低碳发展.

In order to promote the development of industrial low-carbon economy in Jiangsu Province,based on the relevant data from 2000 to 2019,the industrial carbon emission of Jiangsu Province is calculated by IPCC method,and the influencing factors of industrial carbon emission in Jiangsu Province are identified and studied by Kaya model and LMDI model.The research shows that the total carbon emission in 2019 is 463111900 t,and it is 3.69 times that of 125396000 t in 2000,its average annual growth rate is 7.12%.The evolution trend increased rapidly in the early stage and gradually stabilized in the later stage.The carbon emission intensity decreased from 1.46t/10000 yuan in 2000 to 0.46t/10000 yuan in 2019,showing a downward trend year by year.Industry scale,industrial development level and energy consumption structure are the driving factors of industrial carbon emission in Jiangsu Province,and energy intensity is the restraining factor of industrial carbon emission in Jiangsu Province.It is suggested that Jiangsu Province take measures such as adjusting the energy consumption structure,strengthening enterprise innovation,vigorously developing clean energy and accelerating industrial upgrading and transformation to promote the industrial low-carbon development of Jiangsu Province.