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可持续发展视角下基于水量供需平衡的水资源承载力分析——以青海省大通县为例 被引量:6

Carrying Capacity of Water Resources Based on Water Supply and Demand Balance from the Perspective of Sustainability——A Case Study of Datong County,Qinghai Province
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摘要 水资源承载力评价对掌握区域水资源禀赋和开发利用状况、优化水资源配置、指导国土空间规划有重要的意义。采用层次分析(AHP)法,选取21个评价指标对青海省大通县2015—2019年水资源可持续利用程度和水资源承载力进行了动态评估,并基于水资源供需平衡预测了规划年(2025年、2035年)不同保证率P下大通县水资源承载力,计算了水资源最大可承载人口规模。结果表明:评价子系统中显著影响大通县水资源可持续利用能力的敏感因子为地表水水质类型(C_(2))、人均用水量(C_(12))、人均GDP(C_(16))、污水径流比(C_(18));大通县近5年水资源可持续利用综合评价指数从0.62升至0.65,水资源承载力平衡指数(IWSD)值均大于0,说明水资源处于正均衡,表明区域水资源处于可持续利用的良好状态;不同规划年在保证率分别为P=50%、75%、95%下大通县的可利用水资源量即水资源供水量均有盈余,2025年水资源供水量的盈余量分别占总需水量的30.52%、19.72%、9.39%,2035年水资源供水量的盈余量分别占总需水量的40.08%、30.58%、21.49%;2035年大通县水资源最大可承载人口规模为78.93~85.66万人。该研究结果可为大通县国土空间“双评价”研究提供科学依据,也可为大通县产业布局调整及国土空间规划提供科学指导。 The assessment of water resource carrying capacity is critical for understanding regional water resource endowment,growth,and usage,optimizing water resource distribution,and guiding land-use planning.By the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method,this paper selects 21 assessment indexes,analyzes the sustainable utilization ability of water resources in Datong County,Qinghai Province from 2015 to 2019,and dynamically evaluates the carrying capacity of water resources.Based on the supply and demand balance,the paper forecasts the carrying capacity of water resources of different assurance rates P in Datong County in the planning year(2025,2035)and calculates the maximum carrying capacity.The results show that the sensitive factors in the evaluation subsystem that significantly affect the sustainable utilization capacity of water resources in Datong County are surface water quality type C_(2),per capita water consumption C_(12),per capita GDP C_(16) and sewage runoff ratio C_(18).The evaluation index for sustainable water resource use has risen from 0.62 to 0.65 in the last five years,and the IWSD is greater than 0,indicating a positive balance of water resource and good sustainable utilization of regional water resources.There is a surplus of available water resources in different planning years when the guarantee rate is P=50%,75% and 95%,respectively,The surplus amount of water supply in 2025 accounts for 30.52%,19.72% and 9.39% of the total water demand,respectively;the surplus amount of water supply accounts for 40.08%,30.58%,and 21.49% of the total water demand respectively in 2035;in 2035,the maximum population size of water resources in Datong County is 789300~856600.The results can serve as a realistic guide for Datong County’s“double evaluation”land space study,and provide scientific guidelines for industrial layout adjustments and land space planning.
作者 张晨光 文章 龚健 陈晨 薛佩佩 ZHANG Chenguang;WEN Zhang;GONG Jian;CHEN Chen;XUE Peipei(School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430078,China;School of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China)
出处 《安全与环境工程》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2022年第2期237-247,共11页 Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金 青海省大通县国土空间总体规划(2020175102)。
关键词 可持续利用 水资源承载力 水量供需平衡 层次分析法 大通县 sustainable utilization carrying capacity of water resource demand and supply balance of water AHP Datong County
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