国有资本对养老保险基金的最优划转率研究——基于OLG模型的比较静态分析

A Research on the Optimal Transfer Rate of State-owned Capital to Pension Insurance Fund:Comparative Static Analysis Based on OLG Model

利用世代交叠模型(OLG模型)探讨划转国有资本与养老保险制度改革及人口结构演化的关系。假设社保基金持股不变现、从国有资本净收入中获取分红,结果显示:中、高生育率方案下,如果做实个人账户,划转率在55%~65%,就能够实现社会福利最大化和目标替代率,并兼顾年轻消费的转折点;10%的政策划转率与此仍有较大差距。为保障社会福利和替代率目标,应增加国有资本划转比例,优化制度参数,并辅以改善制度运行环境的其他措施。

This paper discusses the relationship among the transfer of state-owned capital,the reform of pension insurance system and the evolution of demographic structure based on Over Lapping Generation Model(OLG Model).Assuming that the social security fund’s shares keep unchanged and dividends are obtained from the net income of state-owned capital,with personal accounts being financed,the transfer rate is shown to be between 55% and 65% under both medium and high fertility schemes,which can maximize the social welfare,achieve target replacement rate,and consider the turning point of consumption at a young age.However,the current policy transfer rate is 10%,which is still greatly lower than the ideal standards.In order to ensure the targets of social welfare and replacement rate,it is necessary to increase the transfer rate of state-owned capital,optimize institutional parameters,supplemented by other measures to improve the operating environment of the system.