中国渔业经济碳排放驱动因素研究——基于LMDI和脱钩模型的双视角分析

Study on the Driving Factors of Carbon Emission of Fishery Economy in China——Dual Perspective Analysis Based on LMDI and Decoupling Model

利用2009—2020年中国渔业统计年鉴数据,基于参数调整的Kaya-LMDI模型和Tapio脱钩模型对中国渔业经济碳排放驱动因素和碳排放与渔业经济的脱钩关系进行测算。中国渔业经济的碳排放呈现出先增长后下降的趋势,AEI整体呈下降趋势;在各影响碳排放的因素中,经济增长效应对碳排放增长贡献最大,能源强度效应和产业结构效应为减少碳排放的主要驱动因素;从“十一五”到“十三五”期间,渔业经济的脱钩状态由弱脱钩转变为强脱钩。中国渔业经济应不断提高发展水平,在兼顾短期和长期的新技术、新策略中寻求突破。

Based on the data of China's fishery statistical yearbook from 2009 to 2020,a parameter adjusted Kaya-LMDI model was constructed,which was used to analysis the driving factors of carbon emission of China's fishery economy.The Tapio-decoupling model was used to discuss the decoupling relationship between carbon emission and fishery economy.The results show that the carbon emission of China's fishery economy increases first and then decreases,and the AEI shows a downward trend as a whole.Among the factors affecting carbon emissions,the effect of economic growth contributes the most to the growth of carbon emissions,and energy intensity effect and industrial structure effect are the main driving factors to reduce carbon emissions.The decoupling model shows that the dependence of fishery economy on energy has changed from weak decoupling to strong decoupling,China's fishery economy should constantly improve its development level and seek breakthroughs in new technologies and strategies.