安徽人口红利的经济增长尾效研究

Study on economic growth drag of demographic dividend in Anhui Province

为揭示安徽人口红利变化对经济增长所产生的影响,文章建立人口红利经济增长尾效测算模型,并基于2000—2016年安徽16个城市的面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,安徽经济增长贡献率最高的是资本存量,其次是劳动投入,而人口红利对经济增长贡献率却较低,仅为0.0214。安徽人口红利的经济“增长尾效”值为0.001052,这意味着随着人口红利增长受到约束,安徽经济增速将平均每年放缓0.105%。因此,安徽必须加快推进从人口红利向人才红利转变,奋力抢抓后人口红利时代经济发展的历史机遇。

In order to reveal the impact of demographic dividend on the economic growth in Anhui Province,an economic growth drag measurement model for the demographic dividend is established,and the empirical analysis is conducted based on the panel data of 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2016.The research results show that the contribution rate of capital stock to the economic growth in Anhui Province is the highest,followed by labor input,while the contribution rate of demographic dividend to the economic growth is relatively low,only 0.0214.The economic growth drag of demographic dividend in Anhui Province is 0.001052,which means that as the growth of demographic dividend is restrained,the economic growth in Anhui Province will slow down by an average of 0.105%per year.Therefore,the province must accelerate the transition from demographic dividend to talent dividend and seize the historical opportunities of economic development in the post-demographic dividend era.