基于MCE-CA-Markov模型的佛山市土地利用景观格局演变及模拟预测

Evolution and simulation prediction of land use landscape pattern in Foshan City based on MCE-CA-Markov model

以佛山市2005,2010和2015年的Landsat遥感影像为数据源,从景观生态学的角度分析了2005―2015年佛山市各土地利用景观类型的分布格局、空间演变和景观格局变化特征,并结合自然和社会2大影响因素,基于MCE-CA-Markov模型,利用IDRISI软件实现了对佛山市未来土地利用景观格局的模拟和预测。在此基础上,结合城市未来的发展变化情况提出了相应的管控建议。

Based on Landsat remote sensing images of Foshan City in 2005,2010 and 2015,this study analyzed the distribution pattern,spatial evolution and landscape pattern change characteristics of various land use landscape types in Foshan City from 2005 to 2015 from the perspective of landscape ecology.Combined with natural and social factors,the future land use landscape pattern of Foshan City was simulated and predicted by IDRISI software based on MCE-CA-Markov model.The corresponding management and control suggestions are put forward according to the development and changes of the city in the future.