多源融合实况气温数据适用性评估分析

利用多源融合实况气温资料与地面气象站实况气温资料,采用相关性分析法、误差分析法检验评估2020年冬季格点实况2 m气温在威县地区的准确性和适用性。结果表明,格点实况气温对比站点(国家站和13个区域站)气温MAE平均在0.33℃左右,准确率为90%以上,平均相关系数在0.98以上。格点实况气温对比梨园站(气温梯度观测站)气温MAE平均在0.83℃左右,RMSE平均在1.0℃左右,准确率为89%以上,平均相关系数在0.99以上。总体来看,格点实况气温在威县区域内总体表现可以接收。但也存在以下问题,当气温出现波动,尤其在02时-08时期间,气温较低且出现下降时,格点实况气温误差相对较大,在威梨及其他气象服务中需要注意这一时段格点实况气温的准确性和可用性,误差较大时需及时订正。

Based on the multi-source fusion real-time air temperature data and the surface meteorological station real-time temperature data,the correlation analysis method and error analysis method are used to test and evaluate the accuracy and applicability of the grid 2m temperature in Weixian County in 2020.The results show that the average temperature MAE(mean absolute error)of the grid real-time temperature comparison stations(national stations and 13 regional stations)is about 0.33℃,the accuracy is more than 90%,and the average correlation coefficient is more than 0.98.Compared with the actual temperature at Liyuan Station(temperature gradient observation station),the average temperature MAE is about 0.83℃,and the average RMSE(root mean squared error)is about 1.0℃;the accuracy is more than 89%,and the average correlation coefficient is more than 0.99.Generally speaking,the grid actual temperature can be accepted in Weixian County.However,there are also the following problems:when the temperature fluctuates,especially during the period from 2:00 to 8:00,when the temperature is low and decreases,the error of the actual temperature of the grid is relatively large.In Weili and other places of meteorological services,attention should be paid to the accuracy and availability of the actual temperature of the grid during this period,and should be corrected in time when the error is large.