长江经济带城市土地经济密度空间格局演变及驱动因素

The Evolution and Driving Factors of the Spatial Pattern of UrbanLand Economic Density in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

以长江经济带108个地级及以上城市为研究对象,运用核密度估计、探索性空间数据分析及地理探测器模型来揭示长江经济带2003—2018年间城市土地经济密度的空间演变特征及驱动因素。研究结果表明:(1)长江经济带城市土地经济密度水平整体呈上升趋势,但地区差异继续扩大,呈现出“东高西低”、“中心高边缘低”的空间分异格局。城市群及都市圈地区成为高值中心,辐射扩散效应显著。(2)从空间关联上看,相关程度先后经历了“快速上升-平稳增长-基本稳定”的变化过程,空间分布特征逐步趋稳;显著HH区主要分布在长三角地区,且有沿海及沿江扩散趋势;显著LL区分布零散,主要分布在滇西南、川东北、湘西南、皖西北等区域边缘。(3)长江经济带城市土地经济密度空间分异特征是多因素交互驱动的结果,资产投资和外资利用对城市土地经济密度分异影响显著,但影响强度逐渐弱化,居民消费、人口与劳动力、科技创新、客货运输等社会经济要素对其影响不断加大,驱动因素逐渐呈现多元化、交互性特征。不同地区应实施差异化管理,强化增长极的辐射带动作用,重视边缘城市的建设与发展,注意多种政策工具的交互运用,为促进长江经济带城市土地经济效益的整体提升创造良好社会经济环境。

Taking 108 cities at the prefecture level and above in the Yangtze River Economic Belf as the research object,the use of nuclear density estimation,exploratory spatial data analysis and geographic detector models were used to reveal the characteristics and driving factors of the spatial evolution of urban land economic density in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2018.Research shows as follows:(1)The overall economic density of urban land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is on the rise,but regional differences continue to expand,showing a spatial differentiation pattern of“high in the east and low in the west”and“high in the center and low in the edge”.Clusters and metropolitan areas have become high-value centers,and the radiation diffusion effect is significant.(2)From the perspective of spatial correlation,the degree of correlation has successively undergone a change process of“rapid increase-steady growth-basic stability”,and the spatial distribution characteristics have gradually stabilized;the significant HH areas are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Belt,and there is a tendency to spread along the coast and along the river;Significant LL areas are scattered,mainly at the edge of southwest Yunnan,northeast Sichuan,southwest Hunan,and northwest Anhui.(3)The spatial differentiation of urban land economic density in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is the result of multiple factors.Asset investment and foreign capital utilization have a significant impact on the differentiation of urban land economic density,but the intensity of the impact is gradually weakening.Resident consumption,population and labor,technological innovation,the influence of social and economic factors such as passenger and freight transportation on it have been increasing,and the driving factors have shown diversified and interactive characteristics.Different regions should implement differentiated management,strengthen the radiating role of growth poles,attach importance to the construction and development of peripheral cities,and pay attention to the interactive application of multiple policy tools to create a good social and economic environment for the overall improvement of urban land economic benefits in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.