劳动力转移、社会福利与老年贫困户精准脱贫:促进还是抑制?

Labor Transfer,Social Welfare and Poverty Alleviation for the Elderly:Promotion or Inhibition?

老年贫困人口是农村贫困人口的组成部分,也是推进乡村振兴工作的重难点之一。本文通过对劳动力转移、社会福利与老年贫困户精准脱贫之间的关系进行研究,利用OLS和分位数回归模型,对江西省2885份老年贫困户样本进行实证分析,结果显示:(1)劳动力转移对促进老年贫困户的精准脱贫有显著正向作用,能够缓解老年贫困户的贫困状况,其边际效果随着收入水平的提高作用更加显著。劳动力转移距离对家庭人均收入的增加有正向促进作用,尤其是处在低收入位点的老年贫困户,对其家庭人均收入的边际贡献要更为显著。(2)社会福利中,有养老保险的老年贫困户收入增加明显,特别是对处在低收入位点的老年贫困户作用更为显著。同时也在低龄老年贫困样本中表现出较强的异质性,养老保险对低龄老年贫困户的作用随着老年贫困户收入位点的升高呈现出“U”型特征。(3)有低保对老年贫困户减贫效果明显,但研究结果反映出低保政策在实施过程存在“济富效应”,对于应帮扶的独居、高龄老年贫困户未能有效帮扶,在一定程度偏离了扶贫的精准度。(4)医保报销比例越高对促进老年贫困户精准脱贫有积极作用。高龄老年贫困户、低龄老年贫困户与是否独居老年贫困户的回归结果相一致,独居和高龄老年贫困户对医保的依赖性要高于非独居老年贫困户与低龄老年贫困户,医保报销比例对独居老年贫困户、高龄老年贫困群体的促进作用更强。因此,建议在精准扶贫过程中,要完善老年贫困户多重保障机制,合理安排老年贫困户转移就业的方式和渠道,加强社会福利的动态监测,降低老年群体的医疗服务成本,实现家庭养老与社会养老的双重保障,降低老年贫困的发生,提高扶贫的精准性和有效性。

As an integral part of the poor,the elderly poor is one of the most critical and complex tasks in promoting rural revitalization.Based on the study of the relationship between labor transfer,social welfare and poverty of the elderly,this paper uses OLS and a quantile regression model to analyze 2885 survey data of poverty-stricken elderly households in Jiangxi Province.The results show that:(1)labor transfer has a significant positive effect on poverty alleviation of the elderly.The transfer of family members can alleviate the poverty of poverty-stricken elderly households.Its marginal effect is more significant with the increase of income level.However,it hinders the poverty-stricken families of the elderly living alone.The elderly living alone,restricted by their labor ability,cannot improve their family income level through transfer.(2)The transfer distance positively affects the increase of per capita income,especially for the elderly poor households in the low point.The marginal contribution to their per capita income is more significant.(3)In social welfare,endowment insurance has a significant role in promoting the income of the elderly poor households,especially for the elderly poor households at the low point.However,there is strong heterogeneity in the poverty samples of the young aged.The effect of endowment insurance on the poverty of the young aged shows a“U”type feature with the increase of the income locus of the poor old households.(4)It is the low-income insurance households that have a significant role in alleviating the poverty of the elderly.Still,the research results reflect a“rich economy effect”in the implementation process of the low-income insurance policy,which is helpful for the poverty of the elderly.Therefore,it is suggested that the process of targeted poverty alleviation,we should improve the multiple security mechanism for elderly poor households,reasonably arrange the ways and channels for elderly poor households to transfer employment,strengthen the dynamic monitoring of social welfare,reduce the medical service cost of elderly groups,realize the dual security of family pension and social pension,reduce the occurrence of elderly poverty and improve the accuracy and effectiveness of poverty alleviation.