摘要
2020年的新冠疫情对中国交通运输业造成了巨大冲击,评估不同运输模式抵御疫情冲击的能力将有助于后疫情时代中国运输业结构的调整和优化。基于中国2015年-2019年不同运输模式下客、货运输量和运输周转量数据,使用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对2020年我国交通运输业的各项指标受疫情影响的情况进行评估。研究结果显示:2020年公路货运量和货物周转量降幅最大,而铁路和水路货物运输受疫情冲击最小;2020年经由公路出行的旅客量降幅最大,而经由民航出行的旅客量降幅最小;所有出行方式下旅客出行距离都大幅缩短。结合我国交通运输业具体情况对估算结果进行分析和总结,为各级主管部门制定后疫情时代交通运输业发展策略提供理论依据。
The pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020 has a huge impact on China's transport industry.The impact resistances of transportations are different from mode to mode,and their evaluation is helpful for the optimizing of the structure of China's transportation industry in the post epidemic era.By using a grey GM(1,1)prediction model,an analysis on the data of passenger and freight transport volume and transport turnover of different transport modes in China from 2015 to 2019 was performed,and the impact of the epidemic on various indicators of China's transportation industry in 2020 was estimated.For freight transport,it shows that the most greatly decrease happened to both road freight volume and freight turnover,while the least impact of the epidemic is of the railway freight transport and waterway freight transport.As for the passenger transport,travel distance,as well as passenger amounts have been significantly reduced by all modes of transports.However,the passengers amount decrease most greatly by road,while most least by air.The estimated results are analyzed and summarized in combination with the specific situation of China's transportation industry.The results provide a theoretical basis for the authorities to formulate the development strategies of transportation industry in the post-epidemic era at all levels.
作者
杨超
YANG Chao(School of Business,Liaocheng University,Liaocheng Shandong 252000,China)
出处
《阜阳师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2022年第1期84-90,共7页
Journal of Fuyang Normal University:Natural Science
基金
国家社科基金项目(BJY19071)。
