海底腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测与维修策略研究

Research on remaining life prediction and maintenance strategy of corroded submarine pipelines

为预测海底管道剩余寿命并实现维修费用最优化,提出一种加速应力退化试验下基于Gamma过程剩余寿命预测的维修策略建模方法。通过温度、压强双应力加速退化试验获取管道腐蚀退化数据,利用Gamma过程建立管道剩余寿命预测模型,使用广义艾林模型反映管道平均寿命与应力之间的关系,并以极大似然法整体估计模型参数;建立以最小期望费用率(ECR)为目标的维护决策优化模型,确定最优维修次数和ECR;以N80管道为例验证所建模型的合理性和正确性。结果表明:利用加速退化试验能大幅度缩短数据获取时间;基于剩余寿命建立维修优化模型,得到最优维修次数为7与最小ECR为4.435元/h。

In order to predict remaining life of submarine pipelines and optimize maintenance cost, a maintenance strategy modeling method was proposed based on Gamma process residual life prediction under accelerated stress degradation test. The data of pipeline corrosion and degradation were obtained by temperature and pressure double stress accelerated degradation experiment, and their residual life prediction model was established by using Gamma process. Relationship between average life and stress of pipelines was reflected by generalized Eyring model, and maximum likelihood method was used to estimate model parameters as a whole. Then, a maintenance decision optimization model aiming at minimum expected cost ratio was developed to determine optimal maintenance times and expected consume ratio(ECR). Finally, with N80 pipeline as an example, the effectiveness and correctness of residual life prediction and maintenance model were verified. The results show that the use of accelerated degradation test can greatly shorten data acquisition time. And according to the optimized maintenance model based on remaining life, the optimal times for maintenance is 7 and minimum expected cost rate is 4.435 yuan/h.