银行业不良资产风险分布、生成机制及对策研究——基于风险预警的视角

The Risk Distribution,Generation Mechanism and Countermeasures of Non-performing Assets in Banking Industry——Based on the perspective of risk warning

文章通过构建“理论+监管”双重预警指标,针对银行业不良资产分布的整体水平、不良规模、银行类型与行业类别四个方面的风险进行了评估。研究发现,我国银行业不良资产水平正处于中风险阶段,不良规模被严重低估,未来存在上升趋势;从风险分布来看,一是地方性商业银行有可能成为未来风险爆发点,另一是多数银行的公司贷款不良率明显高于个人贷款,具体行业涉及批发和零售业、制造业、采矿业等产能过剩行业。为更好防控银行不良资产风险,需要促进隐形不良资产显性化、化解存量不良风险、防范潜在不良风险,进一步提升银行业的核心竞争力、守住金融风险底线。

The paper constructs the dual warning index of"theory+supervision",and evaluates the risks from four aspects:the overall level of non-performing asset distribution,the size of non-performing assets,the type of bank and the category of industry.It has been discovered that the level of non-performing assets in China’s banking industry is in the medium risk stage,the scale of non-performing assets is seriously underestimated,and there is a rising trend in the future.From the perspective of risk distribution,on the one hand,local commercial banks are likely to become the flashpoint of future risks.On the other hand,the nonperforming loans rate of company,in most banks,is significantly higher than that of personal loans,among which are wholesale and retail,manufacturing,mining and other industries with excess production capacity.In order to better prevent and control the risk of non-performing assets of banks,we need to promote the explicit expression of recessive non-performing assets,defuse the risk of stock of non-performing assets,prevent the potential risk of non-performing assets,further enhance the core competence of the banking industry,and keep the bottom line of financial risks.