大型河道工程对流域LUCC的影响评价——以淮河入海水道二期工程为例

Study on the impact of large-scale river engineering on the LUCC of the basin:Case study in the channel of Huai River into the Sea phase Ⅱ project

大型河道工程建设对流域内经济社会发展意义重大,但基于其工程特点,会对沿线地区土地利用/覆被(LUCC)造成一定的影响。研究以淮河入海水道二期工程为例,利用Markov-Flus模型预测2018—2030年流域内无河道工程影响下自然发展以及有工程建设下耕地保护、保障发展3种情景的区域LUCC变化情况,以期对流域内土地高效利用、空间协调发展提供参考。结果表明,2010—2018年研究区域LUCC变化主要以耕地转化为建设用地为主要趋势;相较于自然发展情景,保障发展情景下耕地、草地和林地数量分别减少88.70、1.73和2.48 km^(2),水域和建设用地分别增长79.51和13.40 km^(2)。耕地保护情景下耕地与建设用地分别减少37.55和42.11 km^(2),草地、林地和水域分别增长0.12、0.03和79.51 km^(2)。对比多情景模拟结果可知,大型河道工程建设占用沿线地区大量土地,主要表现为建设用地供给量减少与耕地流失加剧,短期内会造成区域土地利用结构性矛盾。但其建设能改善农业生产要素以及提升区域经济发展区位条件,对地区社会经济高质量、可持续发展具有重大意义。

Large-scale river engineering construction is of great significance to the economic and social development of the basin,but based on it’s engineering characteristics,it will have a certain impact on land use/cover change(LUCC)in the areas along the line.The study taked the second phase of the Huai River into the Sea as an example,and used the Markov-Flus model to predict the changes in regional LUCC in the three scenarios of natural development under the influence of river projects or non-river projects in the basin from 2018 to 2030,as well as cultivated land protection and guaranteed development under project construction.Provide reference for efficient land use and coordinated development of space in the basin.The results show that from 2010 to 2018,the main trend of LUCC changes in the study area was the conversion of cultivated land to construction land.Compared with the natural development scenario,the amount of arable land,grassland and woodland under the guaranteed development scenario was reduced by 88.70,1.73 and 2.48 km^(2),respectively,and the water area and construction land increased by 79.51 and 13.40 km^(2),respectively.Under the arable land protection scenario,arable land and construction land decreased by 37.55 and 42.11 km^(2),and grassland,woodland,and water area increased by 0.12,0.03 and 79.51 km^(2),respectively.Comparing the results of multi-scenario simulation showed that large-scale river engineering construction occupied a large amount of land along the line,Which was mainly manifested in the decrease in the supply of construction land and the intensified loss of cultivated land,which will cause structural contradictions in regional land use in the short term.However,it’s construction can improve agricultural production factors and enhance the location conditions of regional economic development,which was of great significance to the high-quality and sustainable development of regional socio-economics.