未来RCPs情景下湖北省中稻高温热害风险研究

Study on high temperature and heat damage risk of mid-season rice in Hubei province under future RCPs scenarios

基于典型浓度路径下(稳定路径RCP4.5和高端路径RCP8.5)全球气候模式HadGem2-ES输出的未来2021—2080年气候变化预估结果,采用双线性内插、方差订正等方法进行订正及检验,研究RCPs情景下湖北省中稻高温热害发生规律及其风险变化。结果表明,RCPs情景数据经过方差订正,可降低模拟数据与观测值的相对误差和均方根误差,更加真实反映未来气候变化趋势。未来RCPs情景下,2051—2080年湖北省中稻高温热害强度、频率及风险较基准时段变幅大于2021—2050年,尤以RCP8.5情景显著。高温热害风险增幅最大的为鄂东南大部和鄂西南低山带,该地区高温热害增幅较大,且主要以中度和重度为主;其次为江汉平原和鄂东北,其高温热害主要以轻度为主;鄂西北局部高温热害风险有减缓的趋势,部分地区高温热害频率、强度有减小的趋势。

Based on the climate change forecast results of global climate model HadGem2-ES output in 2021—2080 under typical con⁃centration paths(stable path RCP 4.5 and high path RCP8.5),bilinear interpolation and variance correction methods were used to cor⁃rect and verify.To study the occurrence regularity and risk change of high temperature heat injury of mid-season rice in Hubei prov⁃ince under RCPs scenario.The results showed that the RCPs scenario data can reduce the relative error and root mean square error be⁃tween simulated data and observed data after variance correction,and reflect the future climate change trend more truly.In the RCPs scenario,the intensity,frequency and risk of high temperature heat injury of mid-season rice in Hubei province from 2051 to 2080 were greater than those in 2021—2050,especially in the RCP8.5 scenario.The risk of high temperature heat damage increased the most in the southeastern part of Hubei province and the low mountain belt of southwestern Hubei province,and the increase of high temperature heat damage in this area was large,and the increase was mainly moderate and severe.The high temperature heat damage was mainly mild in Jianghan Plain and northeast Hubei province.In northwest Hubei,the risk of high temperature heat damage de⁃creased,while the frequency and intensity of high temperature heat damage decreased in some areas.