东北地区农业水足迹的空间差异及其影响因素分析

Analysis on spatial differences and influencing factors of agricultural water footprint in Northeast China

为解决中国东北地区农业基础设施建设不完善,农业生产效率不高等诸多问题,本研究根据水足迹理论测算东北地区2009—2018年主要农作物水足迹总量,运用对数均值指数分解法,将影响水足迹总量驱动因素分解为产量因素、种植规模因素、虚拟水含量因素和作物结构因素,从时间和空间格局双重视角下进行驱动因素贡献情况的分析。结果表明,农业生产水足迹总量总体呈现上升趋势。从时间角度看,作物产量和种植面积占主导地位,作物结构因素的贡献相对较小,虚拟水因素从抑制作用逐渐转变为促进作用;在空间格局上,东北地区水足迹总量存在由南向北的递增趋势。前期各省主要的水足迹总量增长由产量和面积因素贡献,后期种植结构变化以及作物自然因素的不同需求,导致虚拟水因素加剧了各省之间水足迹的差异。从优化空间布局和作物结构,提高农作物生产效率及灌溉用水资源利用率,推动绿色农业发展等方面提出建议。

In order to solve the problems of imperfect agricultural infrastructure construction and low agricultural production efficiency in Northeast China,this study calculated the total water footprint of major crops in Northeast China from 2009 to 2018 based on the wa⁃ter footprint theory,and applied logarithmic mean exponential decomposition method.The driving factors affecting the total water foot⁃print were decomposed into yield factor,planting scale factor,virtual water content factor and crop structure factor,and the contribu⁃tion of driving factors was analyzed from the perspective of time and space pattern.The results showed that the total water footprint of agricultural production showed an upward trend.From the perspective of time,crop yield and acreage played a dominant role,while the contribution of crop structure was relatively small.The effect of virtual water gradually changed from inhibition to facilitation.In terms of spatial pattern,the total water footprint of Northeast China has an increasing trend from south to north.In the early stage,the main increase of the total water footprint of each province was contributed by yield and area factors,while in the later stage,the change of planting structure and the different demands of crop natural factors led to the virtual water factor exacerbating the difference of the water footprint of each province.This study puts forward some suggestions from the aspects of optimizing spatial layout and crop structure,improving crop production efficiency and utilization rate of irrigation water resources,and promoting the development of green agriculture.