新冠肺炎前后福州市区大气颗粒物污染与居民非意外死亡的关系

Relationships between particulate matter pollution and non-accidental deaths among residents in Fuzhou city before and after COVID-19

目的:研究新冠肺炎前后福州市区大气颗粒物污染与居民非意外死亡的关系。方法:收集2016-2020年福州市大气污染数据、气象数据和死因监测数据,采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归广义线性模型的时间序列法,并调整长期趋势、季节性等混杂因素,分析比较新冠肺炎前后大气颗粒物-非意外死亡关系的变化。结果:新冠肺炎发生后,福州市PM2.5浓度显著降低。新冠肺炎前,PM2.5致居民非意外总死亡数的超额危险度于滞后2 d内有显著性,而且在第1天效应最大,分别为[ER=1.69%,95%CI(0.79%,2.59%)]和[ER=0.93%,95%CI(0.49%,1.38%)]。而新冠肺炎后PM2.5对居民非意外总死亡数无显著影响。新冠肺炎前,PM2.5对呼吸系统疾病死亡于滞后第1天有显著影响[ER=3.01%,95%CI(0.35%,5.74%)],新冠后则无显著影响。新冠肺炎前后,PM2.5浓度的降低对循环系统和心血管系统死亡风险的改变无明显影响。结论:新冠肺炎后PM2.5浓度的降低对居民非意外死亡尤其是呼吸系统疾病死亡风险的降低具有显著影响,提示大气污染治理的必要性和有效性。

OBJECTIVE:To investigate relationships between atmospheric particulate matter pollution and non-accidental deaths among residents in Fuzhou City before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.METHODS:Daily air pollution data,meteorological data,and death registry data between 2016-2020 were collected for Fuzhou City.Time-series analysis with a quasi-Poisson regression based generalized linear model to the relationships before and after the COVID-19 pandemic after controlling for confounding factors including long term trend,seasonality,day of week,and meteorological factors.RESULTS:After the occurrence of COVID 19,concentrations of PM2.5 decreased significantly.Before the COVID-19,significant impacts of PM2.5 on non accidental death were observed between lag1-2 days,with the greatest effects being lag day1,namely[ER=1.69%,95%CI(0.79%,2.59%)]and[ER=0.93%,95%CI(0.49%,1.38%)],respectively.By contrast,PM2.5 had no significant impacts on non-accidental death after the COVID-19 pandemic.Before the COVID 19,significant impact of PM2.5 on respiratory-related death was observed on lag day1[ER=3.01%,95%CI(0.35%,5.74%)],however,there was no significant effect after COVID-19.No noticeable changes were found on the relationships between PM2.5 and circulatory-and cardiovascular-related deaths.CONCLUSION:Decreased PM2.5 concentrations after COVID-19 reduced the risk of non-accidental death,particularly for respiratory-related death,indicating the necessity and effectiveness of air pollution control and prevention.