贸易开放与中国制造业市场分割:兼论中国的“以开放促改革”战略

Trade Openness and Market Segmentation:on the Strategy of China’s“Opening to Promote Reform”

研究对外开放如何影响国内市场分割对于评估对外开放的福利效应至关重要。本文借鉴实证产业组织中不完全信息博弈的研究思路,提出了一种不依赖于省际间贸易流量数据测算中国市场分割指数的结构模型方法,并探讨了不同环节贸易开放对市场分割的影响。研究结果表明:从时间趋势上看,市场分割的变迁可以分为3个阶段,1998—2001年间处于相对平稳状态,2002—2005年间迅速下降,2005年以后市场分割抬头;下游贸易开放显著降低了市场分割程度,而中间品和最终品贸易开放对市场一体化进程的影响不显著。因此,通过开放下游行业倒逼上游行业削弱地方保护主义的策略是可行的。

How opening up affects domestic market segmentation is critical to assessing the welfare effect of opening up.This paper proposed a structural method independent of provincial trade flow for measuring market segmentation based on static entry game with incomplete information and examined the impact of trade openness on market segmentation.The results show,first,that the evolution of market segmentation can be divided into three stages:the stable period from 1998 to 2001,the rapid reduction period during 2002-2005,and then the ascending stage after 2005;second,the openness of downstream significantly reduces market segmentation,while the openness of intermediate and final products had no significant impact on market integration.Therefore,opening up downstream industries can function as an effective catalyst of weakening local protectionism.