基于引力模型的广东与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易潜力研究

A Research on the Trade Potential of Guangdong and"the Belt and Road"Based on the Gravity Model

当前“一带一路”倡议已经成为拉动我国外贸发展的重要动力,在受疫情影响我国外贸总体下滑的情况下,我国同“一带一路”市场的贸易逆市上扬。广东作为贸易总额全国第一的贸易大省,占“一带一路”外贸总额却不足四分之一,可见“一带一路”沿线国家对于广东对外贸易依然具有较大的潜力空间,贸易潜力亟待释放。研究基于贸易引力模型,选取2008~2018年间15个具有代表性的沿线国家,测算其与广东的贸易潜力数值,发现国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product,GDP)、地理距离、经济发展水平差距、对外直接投资均会不同程度地影响外贸流量。结果表明大多数国家对于广东依然具有较大贸易发展空间;提出了相应政策建议,包括调整贸易布局、完善贸易政策、优化交通体系、加大技术导向性直接投资等。

"The Belt and Road"has become an important driving force for the development of our country's foreign trade.As China's foreign trade has generally declined due to the impact of the epidemic,China's trade with"the Belt and Road"market has risen.As the largest trade province in the country in terms of total trade volume,Guangdong has less than a quarter of its total foreign trade volume with"the Belt and Road".It can be seen that countries along"the Belt and Road"still have great potential for Guangdong's foreign trade,and the trade potential needs to be released urgently.Based on the trade gravity model,15 representative countries along the route from 2008 to 2018 are selected,and the value of their trade potential with Guangdong is calculated.It is found that GDP,geographic distance,economic development gap,and foreign direct investment will all affect foreign trade flows to varying degrees.The results show that most countries still have a lot of room for trade development in Guangdong.Corresponding policy recommendations are put forward,including adjusting trade layout,improving trade policies,optimizing the transportation system,and increasing technology-oriented direct investment.