保险业承保风险引致系统性风险的复杂网络分析——基于寿险业与财险业的比较

Complex Network Analysis of Underwriting Risks Resulting in Systemic Risks in the Insurance Industry:Comparison between Life and Nonlife Insurance Industry

基于2004—2018年实务数据,建立了寿险和财险业承保风险网络,模拟和量化了承保风险导致的系统性风险,并在行业和公司层面进行了理论、实证分析和敏感性测试。研究发现,承保风险是导致保险业系统性风险的根源,所导致的系统性风险在样本期不断上升后趋于稳定,但整体可控。寿险承保风险所致的系统性风险低于财险。再保险分出率、偿付能力是影响系统性风险和保险公司稳定经营的关键,控制巨灾风险是有效防范承保风险引发保险业系统性风险的重中之重。

Based on the data of China’s life insurance and nonlife insurance businesses from 2004 to 2018,this paper first establishes the life and nonlife insurance underwriting business networks respectively,and then simulates and quantifies the systemic risks caused by underwriting risks.Finally,theoretical,empirical and sensitivity tests are conducted at industry and firm levels.The research results show that underwriting risk is the root cause of insurance systemic risk,and the resulting systemic risk tends to be stable after rising in the sample period,but it is controllable overall.The level of systemic risk caused by the life insurance underwriting risk is much lower than that of the property insurance.Reinsurance rate and solvency are the key factors affecting the systemic risk and the stability of insurance companies.On the whole,controlling the catastrophe risk is the most important thing to effectively prevent the underwriting risk from causing the systemic risk of the insurance industry.