飞机燃油箱油气空间引燃概率函数预测模型

Prediction Model for Ignition Probability Function of Ullage in Aircraft Fuel Tank

为研究飞机燃油箱的引燃概率函数,通过开展弹丸射击模拟油箱靶标的弹道实验,得到弹丸在不同速度下引燃油箱的情况。提出燃油箱冲击毁伤标准(BC标准),并在实验研究的基础上通过Logistic回归分析得到了飞机燃油箱油气空间引燃概率函数预测模型。研究结果表明:基于BC标准的油气空间引燃概率函数对引燃概率的预测值与经验公式预测值和实验点处频率间的误差较小,模型能够对油箱在给定条件下的引燃概率进行预测且具有良好的精度;研究方法和相关结论可以为飞机燃油箱毁伤判据研究及飞机易损性评估提供参考。

The ballistic experiment of shooting a projectile at a simulated fuel tank is made to study the ignition probability function of ullage in aircraft fuel tank,and the conditions of igniting to fuel tank by projectile at different speeds are obtained.The impact damage criterion of fuel tank(BC criterion)is put forward.Based on the experimental research,an ignition probability function prediction model of the ullage in aircraft fuel tank is obtained through Logistic regression analysis.The research results show that the error between the predicted value of the ignition probability function based on BC criterion with the predicted value of the empirical formula and the frequency at experimental point is small,and the proposed prediction model can be used to predict the ignition probability of fuel tank under the given conditions with good accuracy.The research methods and related conclusions can provide a reference for the research on the damage criterion of aircraft fuel tank and the aircraft vulnerability assessment.