基于物元可拓模型的黄河兰州段突发水污染安全评价

Safety Assessment of Sudden Water Pollution in Lanzhou Section of Yellow River Based on Matter-Element Extension Model

[目的]科学评价黄河流域突发水污染安全等级,为提高黄河流域突发水污染事件应急响应能力提供参考。[方法]基于科学性、整体性、数据可获得性等原则,通过PSR模型遴选16个与黄河兰州段相关指标构建评价指标体系,并以黄河兰州段2014—2019年数据为基础,采用GRA-PCA组合确定指标权重,运用物元可拓模型得到其突发水污染安全评价等级。[结果]黄河兰州段突发水污染安全等级2014年为Ⅱ级(重大危险);2016年为Ⅰ级(特别重大危险);2015,2017—2019年为Ⅲ级(较大危险)。整体有从Ⅱ级(重大危险)向Ⅲ级(较大危险)降低的趋势。这与近年来甘肃省对黄河治理取得的效果基本一致。[结论]GRA-PCA物元可拓评价模型方法合理,具有可操作性,能够对黄河兰州段突发水污染安全等级进行准确评价,同时也为其他流域的突发水污染安全等级评价提供借鉴。

[Objective]The safety level of sudden water pollution in the Yellow River basin was scientifically evaluated in order to provide a reference for improving the emergency response capacity to a sudden water pollution incident in the Yellow River.[Methods]Based on the principles of science,integrity,and data availability,16 indicators related to the Lanzhou section of the Yellow River were selected through the PSR model to construct an evaluation index system.Based on the data of the Lanzhou section of the Yellow River from 2014 to 2019,the index weight was determined by GRA-PCA combination,and the matter-element extension model was used to obtain the safety evaluation level of sudden water pollution.[Results]The safety level of sudden water pollution in the Lanzhou section of the Yellow River was levelⅡ(major hazard)in 2014;levelⅠ(particularly major hazard)in 2016;levelⅢ(greater hazard)in 2015,2017—2019.The overall trend of decreasing from levelⅡ(major hazard)to levelⅢ(larger hazard)was basically consistent with the effect observed by the government of Gansu Province on the Yellow River in recent years.[Conclusion]The GRA-PCA matter-element extension evaluation model method was reasonable and operable.It can accurately evaluate the safety level of sudden water pollution in the Lanzhou section of the Yellow River,and also provide a reference for the evaluation of sudden water pollution safety levels in other river basins.