云南省瑞丽市景观生态风险及其与COVID-19疫情分布的耦合关系

Landscape Ecological Risk and Its Coupling Relationship With COVID-19 Outbreak Distribution at Ruili City,Yunnan Province

[目的]探究生态风险时空演变和其与COVID-19疫情空间分布关系,为区域的生态环境保护、可持续发展和疫情管控提供理论参考。[方法]以云南省瑞丽市为研究区,基于Landsat遥感影像,提取2000,2010,2015和2021年4期景观类型数据,运用景观人工干扰强度、景观生态风险评价模型和GWR模型等方法,定量研究2000—2021年瑞丽市景观类型和生态风险时空变化,进而研究景观人工干扰强度和生态风险分别与COVID-19疫情空间分布的关系。[结果](1)2000—2021年瑞丽市景观类型主要以林地和园地为主;林园地面积相对稳定,耕地面积出现波动,建设用地不断扩张;(2)2000—2021年瑞丽市景观人工干扰强度以低强度为主,以点状向外缓慢增加,整体趋势向西北—东南方向扩张,中高强度区域面积不断增大,南部沿瑞丽江区域强度逐渐加深;(3)瑞丽市景观生态风险等级以低和较低风险为主,并呈现由低等级向高等级转移趋势;低风险区主要分布在中部;中等级及以上风险区主要分布在西北和东南部。各时期景观生态风险在空间上以高—高和低—低聚集,有较强的自相关性;(4)2021年瑞丽市COVID-19疫情空间分布呈现“一主两次”中心的聚集特征,疫情空间分布与景观生态风险指数和景观人工干扰强度均存在关联。[结论]研究期间瑞丽市景观类型变化明显,生态风险升高,生态环境出现恶化趋势;COVID-19疫情空间分布与景观格局具有相关性,城市建设用地和生态用地对病毒传播有空间聚集和阻碍的作用。

[Objective]The temporal and spatial evolution of landscape ecological risk,driving forces,and their correlation with the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic were studied,in order to provide a theoretical reference for regional ecological environment protection,sustainable development,and epidemic control.[Methods]Landsat remote sensing images of Ruili City in Yunnan Province were used to extract landscape type distribution data in 2000,2010,2015,and 2021 by using methods such as landscape artificial disturbance intensity,an ecological risk assessment model,and the GWR model.The temporal and spatial changes of the landscape types and ecological risks in Ruili City from 2000 to 2021 were quantitatively studied.The relationships between landscape artificial disturbance intensity and landscape ecological risks,and the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic were determined.[Results]①From 2000 to 2021,landscape types of Ruili City were mainly woodland and garden land.Forest and garden areas were relatively stable,while the area of arable land fluctuated,and the construction land area continued to expand;②From 2000 to 2021,the intensity of landscape artificial disturbance in Ruili City was mainly low,slowly increasing outwards in a dotted pattern.The overall trend was expansion from the northwest to the southeast direction.The area of medium and high intensity areas continued to increase,and the intensity of the southern area along the Ruili River gradually deepened;③Landscape ecological risk level of Ruili City was classified as lower-risk and low-risk areas,and shifted from low-level to high-level over time.The low-risk areas were mainly located in the middle of the study area,and the medium-risk and high-risk areas were mainly located in the northwest and southeast areas.Landscape ecological risks in different periods were spatially clustered in high-high and low-low level,with strong autocorrelation;④The spatial distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ruili City in 2021 presented the clustering characteristics of one main center and two secondary centers.The spatial distribution of the epidemic was correlated with the landscape ecological risk index and the intensity of landscape artificial disturbance.[Conclusion]During the study period,the landscape types of Ruili City changed significantly,the ecological risk increased,and the ecological environment showed a trend of deterioration.The change of landscape type in Ruili City was obvious,the ecological risk increased,and the ecological environment deteriorated.The spatial distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic was correlated with the landscape pattern.Urban construction land and ecological land had spatial aggregation and obstruction effects on the spread of the virus.