碳交易对绿色全要素生产率的影响机制研究

Research on the Influence Mechanism of Carbon Trading on Green Total Factor Productivity

当前碳交易已成为中国控制温室气体排放的国家战略,市场体系建设稳步推进。文章基于2007—2018年我国30个省份面板数据,首先采用双重差分模型(DID)对碳交易政策实施下地区绿色全要素生产率变动进行了评估,且通过双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID)对其稳健性进行了检验,最后通过机制分析验证了文中提出的假设。研究结果表明:碳交易对绿色全要素生产率提升效果较为显著,且通过PSM-DID进一步评估后结果并无明显差异;在动态性检验过程中可以看出,碳交易试点开展后短期内绿色全要素生产率并无明显提升反而有所下降,从2016年开始呈显著提升状态,表明碳交易对绿色全要素生产率的提升具有时效性;机制分析验证了碳交易通过驱动低碳技术创新、产业结构转型升级、能源结构清洁化、资源要素替代等效应促进绿色全要素生产率的增长。因此,在新时代绿色发展理念及碳交易全国推广的背景下,探讨碳交易对绿色全要素生产率影响机制问题,对推进经济绿色高质量增长、碳市场的完善和减排目标的实现具有理论和现实意义。

At present,carbon trading has become China's national strategy to control greenhouse gas emissions,and the construction of market system has been steadily promoted.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2018,this paper first uses difference in difference model(DID)to evaluate the change of regional green total factor pro⁃ductivity under the implementation of carbon trading policy,and tests its robustness through the difference in difference propensity score matching method(PSM-DID).Finally,the hypothesis proposed in this paper is verified through mecha⁃nism analysis.The results show that carbon trading has a significant effect on the improvement of green total factor produc⁃tivity,and there is no significant difference after further evaluation by PSM-DID;in the dynamic test process,it can be seen that the green total factor productivity has not increased significantly in the short term after the pilot of carbon trad⁃ing,but has decreased.It has increased significantly since 2016,indicating that carbon trading has timeliness for the im⁃provement of green total factor productivity;mechanism analysis verifies that carbon trading promotes the growth of green total factor productivity by driving low-carbon technological innovation,industrial structure transformation and upgrad⁃ing,clean energy structure,resource factor substitution,and other effects.Therefore,under the background of the concept of green development in the new era and the national promotion of carbon trading,discussing the impact mechanism of carbon trading on green total factor productivity has theoretical and practical significance for promoting green and high quality economic growth,improving the carbon market,and realizing the emission reduction target.