人民币国际化、短期跨境资本流动与资产价格波动

RMB Internationalization,Short-term Cross-border Capital Flows and Asset Price Fluctuations

基于人民币国际化、短期跨境资本流动与资产价格波动互动机理分析,构建TVP-SV-VAR模型。实证分析了人民币国际化、短期跨境资本流动与资产价格波动之间的联动关系。结果表明:人民币国际化、短期跨境资本流动以及资产价格波动三者联动,影响具有时变特征,在不同时间与不同政策背景下,三者之间联动关系以及影响程度不同。提出合理推进人民币国际化、建立和完善短期资本流动预警机制以及推动股票市场和房地产市场完善发展的政策性建议。

Based on the interaction mechanism analysis of RMB internationalization,Short-term cross-border capital flows and asset price fluctuations,the paper constructs a TVP-SV-VAR model to empirically analyze the linkage relationship between RMB internationalization,Short-term cross-border capital flows and asset price fluctuations.The results show that the internationalization of RMB,Short-term cross-border capital flow and asset price fluctuation are linked,and the impact has time-varying characteristics.The linkage relationship and influence degree of the three are different under different time and different policy background.Accordingly,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reasonably promote the internationalization of RMB,establish and perfect the early-warning mechanism of short-term capital flow,and promote the perfect development of the stock market and real estate market.