国际油价波动周期对比及后市走向分析

Comparison of International Oil Price Fluctuation Cycles and Analysis of Influencing Factors

通过对比历史上的几次油价大幅波动周期,总结了后疫情时代长期油价走势的分析框架,在供需基本面基础上,疫情恐慌、地缘政治、油气投资动力、美联储利率政策等诸多因素,都将使油价波动变得更加复杂。从目前石油市场表现来看,2020年至今的油价上涨动力介于2009–2014年和2016–2018年两次上行周期之间,与2011年较为相似,地缘冲突刺激油价将成为2022年油市的主旋律。在多重因素交织影响下,国际油市面临着更大的不确定性。我国石油企业须顺应能源行业发展趋势,提前布局战略转型;加强国际合作,增强对国际市场的影响力;完善石油储备机制,确保资源稳定供应;强化市场研判,充分利用金融工具抵御油价波动风险。

This article summarizes the analysis framework of the long-term oil price trend in the post-epidemic era by comparing and analyzing several periods of oil price fluctuations in history.It believes that on the basis of supply and demand fundamentals,epidemic panic,geopolitics,the dynamics of oil and gas investment,the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy,and many other factors will further complicate oil price volatility.Judging from the current performance of the oil market,the upward momentum of oil prices from 2020 to the present is between the two upward cycles of 2009–2014 and 2016–2018.Similar to 2011,the geopolitical conflict to stimulate oil prices will become the main theme of the oil market in 2022.At the moment when multiple factors are intertwined,the international oil market is facing greater challenges.Chinese oil companies must comply with the development trend of the energy industry and plan strategic transformation ahead of time;strengthen international cooperation and increase their influence on the international market;improve the oil reserve mechanism to ensure a stable supply of resources;strengthen market research and judgment,and make full use of financial tools to resist the risk of oil price fluctuations.