摘要
全球变暖导致大气湿度和降水强度总体增加,也加剧了极端降水事件的发生。科学认识区域极端降水变化规律及其影响对水资源的管理与合理利用、生态保护与治理、农业的可持续发展等具有重要的现实意义。本文基于1960—2018年石羊河流域4个气象站逐日降水量数据,采用一元线性回归分析以及相关分析法,对石羊河流域极端降水变化特征及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:就全流域而言,1960—2018年石羊河流域极端降水指数除持续干旱日数和持续湿润日数呈下降趋势外,其他指数均呈上升趋势,其中,年总降水量、异常降水量和极端降水量上升趋势显著。在空间上,除连续湿润日数外,其余极端降水指数变化倾向率基本表现出明显的海拔梯度效应,即海拔越高增速越大;石羊河流域极端降水的变化是北极区极涡、西太平洋副高、东亚大槽以及青藏高原局部环流等不同的大气环流系统共同作用的结果。同时,区域气温的上升也加剧了极端降水事件的发生。
Global warming leads to an overall increase in atmospheric humidity and precipitation intensity,which aggravates the occurrence of extreme precipitation events.Scientific understanding of regional variations of extreme precipitation and its impacts is of great practical significance to the management and rational utilization of water resources,ecological protection and governance,and sustainable development of agriculture.Based on the daily precipitation data of four meteorological stations in the Shiyang River Basin from 1960 to 2018,we used unitary linear regression analysis and correlation analysis to analyze the variations and influencing factors of extreme precipitation in the Shiyang River Basin.The results showed that the values of extreme precipitation indices of the whole basin were on the rise except the consecutive dry days and wet days.Among them,the annual total precipitation,very wet days,and extremely wet days had a significant upward trend.Spatially,except consecutive wet days,the change tendency rate of other extreme precipitation indices showed an obvious altitude gradient effect,that is,the higher the altitude,the greater the growth rate.The correlation of extreme precipitation with minimum temperature was stronger than that with maximum temperature,indicating that extreme precipitation is more sensitive to minimum temperature than maximum temperature.Under the background of global warming,the changes of extreme precipitation in Shiyang River Basin were the results of the interaction of different atmospheric circulation systems,such as Arctic Polar Vortex,Western Pacific Subtropical High,East Asian Trough,and Tibet Plateau circulation.The rise of regional temperature exacerbated the occurrence of extreme precipitation events.
作者
黄菊梅
周俊菊
窦娇
马东峰
赵熙
魏伟
胡科
HUANG Ju-mei;ZHOU Jun-ju;DOU Jiao;MA Dong-feng;ZHAO Xi;WEI Wei;HU Ke(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal Universityy Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis,Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期536-545,共10页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41761047和41861040)资助。
关键词
极端降水
影响因素
季风边缘区
石羊河流域
extreme precipitation
influencing factor
monsoon marginal region
Shiyang River Basin