基于智慧出行用户画像的出行期望预留时长分析

Analysis of Travel Expectation Reserved Time Based on User Portrait of Advanced Traveler

可靠的交通出行信息服务是优质出行体验的基本保障,为了探究不同属性出行者、不同出行活动需求条件下的合理预留时长,通过意向(stated preference,SP)调查实验获取出行者在各类典型出行活动场景下的期望预留时长,采用卡方检验与非参数秩和检验验证出行者的个人属性与出行活动类型对期望预留时长的差异性影响。结果表明:受出行活动的价值或惩罚影响,不同类型出行活动的提前到达需求程度以及与之对应的期望预留时长存在显著差异,出行活动价值或惩罚越高,出行者期望预留时长越长;相同类型出行活动需求下,出行者的个人属性亦会显著影响期望预留时长,不同类型出行活动需求下,影响出行者期望预留时长需求的属性类别存在差异,同一类型出行活动需求下,出行者属性的不同分类水平影响出行者期望预留时长需求,其差异程度可高达32 min(103%)。研究结论对于开展精准出行用户的信息服务具有重要意义。

Reliable travel time information is benefit for transportation of travelers.In order to explore the reasonable reserve time for travelers with different attributes and different travel activities,the stated preference(SP)survey was used to obtain the traveler's expected reserve time for various travel activities and Chi-square test and non-parameters were used to verifies the difference between the traveler's personal attributes and the type of travel activity for the expected reserve time.The results show that affected by the value or punishment of travel activities,there is a significant difference in the degree of early arrival of different types of travel activities and the corresponding expected reservation time.The higher the value or punishment of travel activities,the longer time the traveler expects to reserve.Under the demand of the same type of travel activity,the personal attributes of the travelers also significantly affect the expected reserve time.Under the requirements of different types of travel activities,the attribute categories that affect the demand of the traveler's expected reservation time are different.Under the demand of the same type of travel activity,the different classification levels of traveler attributes affect the traveler's expectation of reserve time,and the difference can be as high as 32 min(103%).It is concluded that it is of great significance to carry out the information service of precision travel users.