中美气候竞合关系趋势及前景

Trends and prospects of Sino-US relations about climate competition and cooperation

中美携手推动格拉斯哥气候大会取得积极成果。但拜登政府视中国为全球气候治理主导地位的主要对手,持续施压以期让中国承担更多不合理减排责任,以及中美在可再生能源发展领域矛盾趋于尖锐,使中美在气候领域的竞争性日趋突出。美国在全球气候治理领域道义力量趋弱,联邦气候立法仍未获得实质性突破,主要盟友不愿放弃各自气候政策的独立性,这些因素使得美国对华气候合围策略难见成效。美国推动修订《巴黎协定》有关条款以改变关于减排行动的核证、遵约等安排,强化对中国可再生能源行业或企业的201、301、337调查,将气候议题纳入未来中美双边经贸关系调整进程,意图都在抑制中国。展望前景,中美气候合作在未来拜登政府议程中紧迫性或降低,中美气候领域分歧或加剧,虽然控制疫情、振兴经济等现实利益考虑也使美国回归并维持更为务实的对华气候合作政策,但是中美双方应着意培育、引导、强化合作倾向,为维护中美气候合作势头增添持续动力。

China and the US worked together and achieved positive outcomes at the Glasgow Climate Change Conference.The Biden administration identifies China as its main strategic rival for the dominance of global climate governance,and continues to put pressure on China to take more responsibility for unreasonable emission reduction,as well as the sharp contradiction between China and the US in the development of renewable energy,which makes the competition between China and the US in the field of climate increasingly prominent.Several factors as weak moral strength of the US in the field of global climate governance,no substantive breakthrough on the federal climate legislation of the US,and the core allies of the US are unwilling to give up their own climate policy independence make the climate containment strategy of the US in China difficult to fulfill.The US has pushed to revise relevant provisions of the Paris Agreement to change the certification and compliance arrangements for emission reduction actions,strengthened Section 201,301 and 337 investigations into China’s renewable energy industry or enterprises,and included climate issues in the future adjustment process of bilateral economic and trade relations in order to restrain China.Looking to the future,the climate cooperation of China and the US would be with less urgency in the Biden administration’s agenda and divisions in climate areas between the Sino-US are likely to intensify.Although practical interests that contain the outbreak and revitalize the economy return the US to a more pragmatic climate policy with China,the two sides should be aimed to cultivate,guide,strengthen cooperation,adding sustained impetus to the momentum of Sino-US climate cooperation.