基于复杂系统管理的重大工程核心决策范式研究——以我国典型长大桥梁工程决策为例

Research on Core Decision Paradigm of Major Engineering Based on Complex Systems Management:A Case Study of Two Typical Long-span Bridges in China

重大工程决策活动中有一类关系到工程建设全局性、战略性、整体性意义的核心决策问题,这类决策问题一旦出现失误将对国家安全和社会经济发展造成严重影响,必须认真对待和解决好。本文运用系统科学思维分析了"复杂整体性"是这类决策问题的基本属性以及情景鲁棒性是基本属性的内核;根据复杂系统管理主要研究"复杂社会经济重大工程系统中一类‘复杂整体性问题’"的基本学理,指出重大工程核心决策问题属于复杂系统管理的对象范畴,其逻辑前提是要实现重大工程核心决策的复杂系统思维范式转移;在指出相应思维范式转移路径和相关的实践范式要点后,作为典型案例,介绍了我国不同时期两项创造多项世界第一的长大桥梁工程基于复杂系统管理的核心决策实践。

In the major project decision-making activities,there is a kind of core decision-making problem(DMP)which is related to the overall,strategic and holistic significance of the project construction.Once this kind of DMP is wrong,it will have great influences on the national security and social and economic development,and must be seriously treated and solved.In this paper,we first analyze that"complex integrity"is the basic attribute of this kind of DMP and scenario robustness is the core of this basic attribute by using systems science thinking.Then,according to the basic theory of complex systems management(CSM),it is pointed out that the logic premise of the core decision of major engineering(CDME)belongs to the category of CSM object is to realize the shift of complex systems thinking paradigm of the CDME.Finally,it points out the transition path of thinking paradigm and the key points of practice paradigm,and discusses the core decision-making practice based on CSM by taking two long-span bridge projects in different periods of China that created many world No.1 projects as typical cases.