基于生态敏感性评价的城市用地扩张模拟研究

Simulation Research on Urban Land Expansion Based on Ecological Sensitivity Evaluation

开展城市扩张模拟研究为优化国土空间规划、践行绿色发展理念具有重要作用。以生态敏感性为基础,在RS与GIS技术的支持下,从水土流失、生境、地质灾害和水资源4个方面进行敏感性分析,并对研究区开展生态综合敏感性研究,同时基于CA-Markov模型和武汉市3期土地利用数据对该区域2025年城镇用地进行模拟预测。研究成果:武汉市生态综合敏感性中,高度敏感和极度敏感区域面积占到研究区的32.52%。基于CA-Markov模型预测出2025年武汉市城镇用地面积将达到1845.00km^(2);在尊重自然的前提下,通过与生态敏感性极敏感区域叠加,最终将武汉市建设用地面积调整为1784.16km^(2),并划分出武汉市未来城镇建设用地的边界。从绿色发展的角度出发,引导城市合理有序的扩张,保障社会经济和生态文明的和谐稳定发展。

Carrying out urban expansion simulation research plays an important role in optimizing the national spatial planning and practicing the concept of green development.Based on ecological sensitivity,with the support of RS and GIS technology,this paper selects Wuhan City for soil and water loss,habitat,geological disasters and water resources for sensitivity analysis,and conducts a comprehensive ecological sensitivity study in the study area,based on CA-Markov model and Wuhan phase theree land use data are used to simulate and predict the urban land use in 2025.Research results:Among the ecological comprehensive sensitivities in Wuhan,highly sensitive and extremely sensitive areas account for 32.52% of the study area.Based on the CA-Markov model,it is predicted that the urban land area of Wuhan will reach 1845.00 km^(2) in 2025;on the premise of respecting nature,by superimposing it with ecologically sensitive areas,the construction land area of Wuhan will be adjusted to 1784.16 km^(2).From the perspective of green development,this article guides the rational and orderly expansion of cities and guarantees the harmonious and stable development of social economy and ecological civilization.