不同碳减排目标下长三角地区碳固持服务供需演变分析

Mapping the Changes in Supply and Demand of Carbon Sequestration Service in the Yangtze River Delta Under Different Carbon Emission Reduction Targets

碳固持服务能够捕获并固定大气中的CO_(2),有效地调节气候,随着区域经济社会的发展,其碳排放量与减排压力持续增加,研究区域碳固持服务供需时空动态关系,对合理制定或优化减排目标,指导区域可持续发展等具有重要理论和现实意义。以长三角地区为例,首先明确区域碳固持供给与需求的内涵及测度方法,在评估2000、2015年碳固持服务供给量的基础上,测度不考虑减排目标、减排30%、60%目标下的需求,利用供需比系数,评价长三角整体、省际间的供需关系。结果显示:不考虑减排目标下,15 a间长三角地区碳固持服务供需关系趋于紧张,供需比由50.86%下降到16.36%,空间上中东部地区供需关系紧张化明显;减排30%目标下与减排60%目标下,2015年碳固持供需比分别为40.17%、31.59%,赤字区均主要分布在中东部地区。供需关系趋于紧张的主要原因是碳排放,尤其是工业碳排放量大幅增加。研究结果表明,缓解碳固持服务供需矛盾,除了增加碳汇空间外,应重点加快供需赤字区的产业转型发展;同时,也应从省内和省际等层面上建立基于碳固持服务的区域补偿机制和政策,以服务长三角一体化发展目标。

The carbon sequestration service can mitigate climate change by capturing and absorbing atmospheric CO_(2).The carbon emission and the pressure to reduce emission is increasing with the development of regional economy and society.It has an important theoretical and practical significance for formulating or optimizing emission reduction targets and guiding regional sustainable development to study the temporal-spatial dynamics of the relationship between supply and demand of carbon sequestration service.This paper took the Yangtze River Delta region as an example,which clarified the connotation and measurement method of supply and demand of carbon sequestration.This paper quantified the demand under different carbon emission reduction targets and estimated the supply,and further estimated the supply-demand relationship between the Yangtze River Delta as a whole and between provinces.The results showed that,the relationship between supply and demand tended to be tight during the 15-year period,especially in the central and eastern regions,where the supply-demand ratio has dropped from 50.86% to 16.36% under not considering the target of carbon emission reduction;The carbon supply-demand ratio in 2015 was 40.17% under the target of 30% emission reduction and it was 31.59% under the target of 30% emission reduction in YRD,where the deficit area was mainly distributed in urban centers.The reason for tension between supply and demand was the increase of carbon emission,especially the carbon emissions in industrial.Therefore,the YDR should increase the space for carbon sinks and speed up the industrial transformation in the deficit area to ease the contradiction between the supply and demand.At the same time,it must establish regional compensation mechanisms and policies on carbon sequestration services at the provincial and inter-provincial levels to promote the integrated development.